TEA Commissioner Michael Williams announced that this year the STAAR “cut scores” will increase as a way of showing enhanced “rigor” in the demands placed on Texas students. Planned phased in increases in STAAR scoring had been delayed since the implementation of the system due to flat results in scores. This last spring we got more of the same: flat scores. In other words, now five years into STAAR, students do no better than they did when the assessment was rolled out as a new and unknown entity. In five years, we have become no better at preparing students for this assessment. So the answer is obvious: raise the passing standards. (/end sarcasm).
Raising standards against a backdrop of flat results leads to an inevitable conclusion: passing rates will be the worst ever this year. We should see every single grade level and subject drop significantly in its passing rate, right? Well here is my prediction: passing results will remain flat. Here is my second prediction: flat results against raised standards will be hailed as a success and as evidence that the assessment system is working.
Why do I see this happening? Simple. Because the TEA will manipulate data to achieve the outcome it seeks. I want to cite two specific examples.
December 2014 EOC retests and Spring 2015 Math STAAR.
In December 2014, students who had failed STAAR EOCs in high school retested in the final administration before the legislature met. Over 75,000 seniors were threatened with non-graduation at that time. In response, bills had already been filed at the legislature to permit those seniors to meet alternative graduation standards. STAAR supporters were irate that the Texas pass or go home standard was up for re-evaluation. Suddenly, with no explanation, almost half of those seniors passed. Pass rates for re-testers on the EOCs reached all time highs. The number of kids affected went way down. However, by the time spring EOCs rolled around, we returned right back to the traditional passage rates we had always seen. But during the legislative session, the TEA got to beat its chest about these great results the students had achieved.
In the 2014-2015 school year, Texas introduced new math TEKS. Students struggled, parents screamed, teachers sweated. Students were asked to do work that previously had been taught a year or two later in their academic careers. Fourth graders predictably struggled with sixth grade math. The TEA took two steps. First, it pushed assessment later into the spring to give students more time to learn. Second, it decided not to use the STAAR Math for retention purposes in 5th or 8th grade. When the assessment came around, many parents reported that their students said it was easy, even though they had struggled in their math class all year. When the results came out, amazingly they mirrored the passage rates from previous years.
How can this be? In both instances where STAAR was under a huge spotlight, the results turned out way better than anyone predicted. Well, it isn’t rocket science. If you select easier questions for the assessment, then you can control the results. Having looked at EOC assessments from different years, I truly believe that is exactly what happened with the December 2014 English 2 EOC. Reports from parents would indicate a similar outcome with math. Based on past history, I have no doubt that the TEA will make sure that its contractors craft an assessment that will meet previous passing rates, even with higher cut scores. This will then be used to show that STAAR is working and the system is valid.
Let’s see what happens, but remember this prediction.
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